CNN Poll: Trump Takes Significant Lead in New Hampshire GOP Primary, While Haley Moves to Second Place

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Former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.


Ex President Donald Trump New Hampshire’s Republican Party maintains a substantial lead among likely voters in the presidential primary, but the former South Carolina governor. Nikki Haley A. said that it is ahead of Trump’s other competitors and has taken the second place A new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

Trump’s advantage in New Hampshire is smaller than his majority support in primary polls nationally: 42% say they will vote for him, followed by Haley at 20%, the former New Jersey governor. Chris Christie 14%, State of Florida Ron DeSantis 9%, technology entrepreneurs Vivek Ramasamy 8%, and no other candidate received more than 2% support. Haley’s approval rating rose from 8 percentage points The last CNN/UNH poll was in SeptemberRamaswamy has dropped 5 points and is relatively steady in favor of Trump, Christie and DeSantis.

The poll found Trump’s standing in New Hampshire boosted by a majority of registered Republicans (55% support him, 17% for Haley, 11% for DeSantis). The Republican primary vote is split between Haley (25%), Trump (24%) and Christie (24%).

Undeclared voters can choose which party’s primary to vote for, with 43% of GOP primary voters in the new poll. That’s about the same as their share of GOP primary voters in 2012 — the last time an incumbent Democrat sought re-election with a Republican primary running for office — but a larger share than the 36% they represented. 2016 GOP Primary According to CNN’s exit polls, Trump is running for president for the first time.

New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlon announced Wednesday the state’s first-ever national primary It will be held on January 23A week later Caucuses of Iowa Start the GOP nomination race.

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There has been a sharp increase in the share of Granite State Republican voters since September: 36% of them said they were certain to decide in September. Now, 52% say their minds are made up. More than 8 in 10 Trump supporters (83%) say their preference is certain, compared with 29% who support the other candidates, including a quarter of Haley’s supporters (27%) and Christie’s supporters (25%).

Christie is the candidate most Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say they would never support (47% say they would never support him, 15 points more than the 32% who feel the same way about Trump), but this reflects a softening. Views toward the former New Jersey governor, or at least in the voters’ definition of “never,” were in September, with 60% of Republican primary voters saying they would never support him.

Republican primary voters here aren’t buying the electoral arguments some rivals have made against Trump — 57% say the former president has the best shot at winning next year’s general election, up from 51% who said so in September and significantly more than him. Primarily overall support. Nearly two-thirds of GOP primary voters (63%) say they would be at least satisfied with a Trump nominee. However, those who are not current Trump supporters express mostly negative views about the idea of ​​a Trump nomination: 38% are at least satisfied, while 59% are dissatisfied or angry.

Overall, a majority of Republican primary voters (54%) would be at least satisfied with Haley as the nominee. Haley is far behind Trump on this score among undeclared registered voters (50% of this group would be satisfied with her as the nominee, compared to 44% with Trump). Overall, about half (49%) of GOP primary voters would be satisfied with DeSantis at the top of the ticket, 44% with Ramasamy, and 32% with Christie.

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When asked to rate Trump on a range of attributes, Republican primary voters in New Hampshire are likely to give him broadly positive ratings on his policy positions (67%), decision-making skills (66%), physical and mental fitness (63%). Ability to understand the problems faced by people like them (60%). Few have a positive impression of his character (37%) or his honesty and integrity (46%). However, even among those who did not support Trump for the party’s nomination, sizable minorities rated his policy positions (46%) and decision-making skills (42%) favorably. The gap between Trump supporters and others is a gap, however, when it comes to perceptions of his level of honesty: While 90% of Trump’s own supporters say his honesty and integrity are good or very good, 13% of primary voters favor the latter. Candidates say the same.

A steady share of Republican primary voters cite the economy or jobs as their primary vote (39% in September, now 40%) and immigration or the border (19% in September). , now 18%). But there has been a sharp increase in the share citing the foreign policy issue as decisive for their primary vote, from 6% in September to 15% now.

About half (50%) of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire trust Trump the most among the GOP presidential candidates. War between Israel and Hamas20% say they trust Haley the most. Trump has a wide margin as the most trusted on the economy (58% say he can handle it better compared to 11% for Haley and 10% for Christie), but a significantly smaller advantage on handling abortion (37% to 29% for Trump). to Haley).

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Majority of GOP primary voters support Ban on refugees from Gaza from entering the United States (61% favor it, 25% oppose it). About half (51%) of Republican primary voters want to end all U.S. military support for Ukraine, but that’s a drop from September, when 59% supported that proposal.

GOP primary voters who followed news of the recent Republican presidential debate mostly say Haley (37%) and Ramasamy (26%) did a better job. Another 10% say DeSantis had the best performance, and 9% say Christie. Among the full sample of likely GOP primary voters, 45% said they would like Trump to have participated in the Miami confrontation, and 47% would not like him to do so. Republican primary voters in New Hampshire (54%) say they are somewhat interested in further GOP primary debates, with interest higher among non-Trump voters (65%) than among his voters (38%).

Even in the nation’s premier state, relatively few voters participate in retail politics. About 1 in 6 GOP primary voters say they attended an event for a candidate in the past year (18%), donated to a campaign (12%), and fewer report meeting a candidate (12%). or a bumper sticker (8%) or yard sign (4%) is displayed.

The CNN New Hampshire poll was conducted online Nov. 10-14 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results for the full sample of 1,946 New Hampshire adults, drawn from a probability-based panel, have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. Republican primary voters may have been identified through survey questions about their intention to vote. Results among 841 Republican primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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